GDX & Gold $1200 Target Breakout

  • Posted October 11, 2013

In my video update, I discuss many reasons why I have a bearish-neutral perspective on Gold in the very short term, and why I feel we should see Gold $1200 very soon. As stated in my previous update, the $1276 was a critical level that Gold needed to hold and bounce hard from if it wanted to sustain its intermediate uptrend, especially if it wanted to trade in the $1400 region. Days after my update, Gold did touch the $1276 level as expected, however, the bounce was not impressive and raised some red flags. I addressed these concerns on October 6, 2013 in the comment section under that video update on my Youtube Channel, Vinny1010.

On my recent Gold update video on October 10, 2013, I argue cases for both the Bullish & Bearish perspectives and leave it up to you to decide which one is the strongest. Though I clearly stated I have more of a bearish outlook on Gold in the shorter-term, I wanted to at least present both sides so you know exactly why I was leaning towards Gold $1200 (and/or $1179, the summer lows). I am sure you agree that being unbiased is extremely crucial in portraying an accurate analysis of any stock or commodity.

Bullish & Bearish Perspectives: Gold $1200 or will we see Gold $1400 again?

Bullish

  1. Gold is still above $1276 level, which technically keeps the intermediate uptrend in-tact
  2. A larger Inverse Head & Shoulders as yet to be completed (This is a bullish chart pattern)
  3. Debt Ceiling fears & Government Shutdown issue

Bearish

  1. A lot of resistance: 21, 50 & 100 Moving Averages among other key areas
  2. A downward trendline has been established, and it seems that Gold is having issues surpassing it
  3. Price action (i.e Candle patterns) are suggesting more selling-pressure than buying pressure.
  4. Descending Triangle Formation (Bearish chart pattern formation)
  5. Gold failed to rally on fears of Debt Ceiling concerns and Government Shutdown fears (unlike the past where it rallied pretty hard)
  6. The prior bounce off the $1276 critical level was very weak and raised red flags of buyers in the market
  7. Inverse Head & Shoulders completed on August 28, 2013 when Gold reached $1434
  8. Current price action is now trading under the Ichimoku Cloud suggesting the intermediate uptrend is questionable at this time.

As some of you may have realized, my Gold update was done on October 10, 2013 and the next following day (today), Gold just happened to pierce the critical level of $1276. This piercing opens the floodgates to more downward selling-pressure which will bring about Gold $1200 in the very shorter-term. Look to see Gold to go to $1250 area and then for Gold $1200 and/or $1179 to present itself soon.

GDX Gold Miner ETF Analysis

GDX miners | GDX & Gold $1200 Target BreakoutI also analyzed the Gold Miner ETF, GDX. Though Gold is in a bearish formation, GDX seems to be in a Falling Wedge formation, which is bullish for the miners. This does not mean that GDX will rise while Gold heads towards $1200, but that the downward pressure in the GDX miner will be limited compared to the past. I only advise trading GDX and other Gold Miners when you are experienced enough as they are very volatile. As a disclosure, I currently have Put Options on GDX and though the falling wedge is present, I am not convinced as of yet that it will yield very high price movements as the wedge is rather small.

In conclusion, look for Gold $1200 and GDX Gold Minersto go lower, bounce and then continue much lower as the weeks go by. For the very long term, I am very bullish on precious metals, however, in the shorter-term, it seems there is a lot of selling-pressure that will soon present itself. These volatile and high selling-pressures yield buying opportunities for precious metals investors. Please take advantage of this opportunity!

Finally, please be sure to visit my YouTube channel on a regular basis to check for market updates.

Thanks,
Vinny