Gold 1500 & Silver 26? Another Crash Soon? | September 2013 Metals

  • Posted September 14, 2013

by Vinny  – Will we see Gold 1500 & Silver 26?….Will we see another crash?….Or will we see all of the above?

Gold 1500?

In my previous video and Bipolar Gold article, I gave many reasons why I had a bullish-bias towards Gold and saw it going to the $1400 region. Not too long after my update, Gold went into the $1400 levels so that was very nice to see. Under the comment section of that video, I stated two targets that I felt would be likely: $1404 & $1441. The first target was hit, however, the second has yet to be hit. When traders give more than one targets, it suggests that the first target is always more conservative than the latter. I got $1441 target by doing a “Fibonacci Extension” from one “wave” and projecting it to give me an approximate end target for a future second wave.

Though I do not specialize in Elliot Wave and have very little practice with it, I do know that the “Wave A” should be proportionate to “Wave C” in a A-B-C Corrective Pattern. Many Elliot Wave Theorists believe Gold is in a current Wave C correction, and the question is how high will it go? Many, including myself, feel $1441 is a good approximate target, however, we all know that markets are never rational and it’s never a guarantee that this target will be hit. As the weeks go by, I will be carefully eyeing the metals to see if the momentum is still present for this upward move to possibly take us to Gold 1500.

Unexpected Selling Momentum on September 12, 2013

Parts of this video, unfortunately, may not be of some use. Hours after uploading my video on 9/11/13, Gold broke a major uptrend channel with a very large bearish candle; Gold practically moved nearly twice as much it usually does in one day! This candle may change things here. Due to the harsh sell off on 9/12/13, and assuming we do not get any good bounces within the next couple of trading days, I am expecting levels of $1275 or $1298 areas to be tested. While momentum builds against Gold 1500, we look for it to have a shot at the mid $1400’s, as initially expected. For that to happen, and the continuation of the upward channel, Gold would need to stay above $1298. If Gold does not bounce off of the $1298 level, but breaks down through it, then I will be questioning any upwards momentum.  Gold 1500 and even the mid $1400’s will be rather unlikely.

Again, If we can bounce strongly from the $1298, then there can be a possibility of Gold doing a final rally towards $1400 and maybe even my initial second target of $1441. If we bounce, I will be looking for another upward channel of some sort to play out. If anything is fishy or suspect during the second rally, I will once again question the likelihood of Gold going into the mid $1400’s. At that point, Gold 1500 would have to wait until the future.

The above goes same with Silver. If Silver does not make another strong upward trend, then I will question any possibility of it testing the 200 day moving average, let alone its recent highs as discussed in my update.

Long Term Bearish Targets

I presented various bearish targets on Gold and Silver for you to consider should the metals pierce their recent lows. As stated above, because targets are quite a mystery, traders often give numerous targets for consideration. Obviously, the closest target offers less risk and less profits, while targets farther out offer high risk and high profits (as there is no guarantee the farther target will be triggered). The targets are there for you to consider and decide if you want to purchase physical metal at those levels. Personally, I strongly believe that if those lows are taken out, the metals have a good chance to testing their 200MA (at least once) on the Monthly Chart. MA’s act like magnets, and I believe this will be the case here as well.

bear vs bull | Gold 1500 & Silver 26? Another Crash Soon? | September 2013 MetalsJust to be clear, targets do not necessarily mean bottoms. They are just merely areas to consider taking profits, reducing your position size and/or in this case, the contemplation of buying ‘value’. Many may disagree with those targets I presented, and that is fine. However, I feel I must be objective as possible should the lows be breached. If the lows are not breached, and we get a very powerful bounce, I would still have to see Gold go over $1533 & Silver above $26.10 to even consider that we are no longer in a bear-market.

In Conclusion

[editors’ note] Whether we see Gold 1500 or not, this data is for trading gold and silver in the short term. By analyzing the charts, we can also use this information to accumulate physical gold and silver at bargain entry prices. For those who pay attention, Gold and Silver will yet provide the opportunity of a lifetime. That said, if you have none, please do acquire some physical metal now. But if you already have some, we believe that ‘really long term’ opportunity has not presented itself just yet. In the meantime, we can still profit from gold and silver no matter which way the market is trending.[-T]

The saying goes “the trend is your friend until the very end.” The larger long term bearish trend for gold and silver is still intact. The short term bullish trend is currently in question. Since the original upward channel broke, it’s now time to sit back, figure out what Gold wants to do, and re-analyze from there. Please visit my channel for updates.

Hope it helps,
Vinny